Pats NFL Draft Outlook

The Pats have eleven picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. They are as follows:
1st round-#23
2nd round-#34, #47, #58
3rd round-#89, #97 (compensatory)
4th round-#124
5th round-#170 (compensatory)
6th round-#199 (A one Tom Brady was drafted in this spot in 2000), #207 (compensatory)
7th round-#234

It is unlikely that the Pats will select eleven players with these picks for a few reasons. First, the roster is simply too talented and deep to accommodate that many rookies. I would guess that there will be enough spots for about eight rookies. Second, by moving up or down, they can create more value. Considering the number of picks they have (including three 2nd rounders), the Pats will be in a good position to maneuver around the board. By trading up, they may be able to snag a player that has fallen far below where he should have been taken. By trading down, they increase the value of the pick for next year. This may be particularly prudent this year considering the number of quality free agents they will have at the end of the 2009 season. My hope is that they can trade #47 for a first-round pick next year.
*Compensatory picks cannot be traded.

Pats Roster Breakdown Part III

Here is the concluding chapter of an epic:

• Tedy Bruschi-He is slow and has trouble in coverage, but his knowledge of the system and experience will give him another year as a serviceable 2-down MLB.
• Gary Guyton-Could Guyton have a big leap in his second season? He has the physical ability to be a starter in the NFL, but looked lost a few times last season.
• Adalius Thomas-Thomas is a great player, but he has disappointed since the Pats lured him out of Baltimore with that huge contract.
• Shawn Crable-Finished last season on IR with a shin injury and looks to be a project. Hopefully he can rush the passer well, but I’m not expecting too much this season.
• Angelo Craig-Finished last season on the practice squad. Provides more youth and athleticism at OLB.
• Jonathan Wilhite-Came on strong in the second half of the season, including an interception at Oakland. Look for a good season from Wilhite.
• Shawn Springs-He is 34, 6 feet tall and will earn $4.55 million this season. The Pats must hope for Springs to be a sturdy #1 corner.
• Terrence Wheatley-Second-round pick missed the second half of the season with a wrist injury. Wheatley tallied his most minutes in the last two games he played (St. Louis and at Indianapolis), which could mean the coaching staff saw good things out of him in practice. If he plays well this season, the corner position looks a lot better.
• Ellis Hobbs-Most Pats fans dislike Hobbs, but he is a good #2 or #3 corner with great kickoff return abilities.
• Leigh Bodden-Played well under a Pats style defense in Cleveland in 2007 with six interceptions, before a tough season in a zone-defense last year in Detroit. I think Bodden will play well here, including at least five interceptions.
• Mike Richardson-Will have a tough time making the roster if the Pats draft a few corners.
• Brandon Meriweather-I think Meriweather will have a Pro-Bowl type season. He made a big improvement from his rookie year and he should only get better from here.
• Antwain Spann-Backup Safety and STer will compete for a spot in camp.
• Tank Williams-He was going to play a hybrid S/LB role last season before suffering a season-ending knee injury in the first preseason game. Look for a similar S/LB role this year.
• James Sanders-He is an adequate starter (an 83 in Madden describes Sanders well), but getting an upgrade through the draft for the future would be nice.
• Ray Ventrone-Like Spann, he will compete in camp for a roster spot.
• Stephen Gostkowski-A Pro-Bowler last year, he should have another great season. He made 90% (36 of 40) of his field goals last season.
• Chris Hanson-He had an incredible punt into the wind in the last game at Buffalo. Should have another decent year.
• Tom Malone-Played college ball at USC, meaning he rarely punted even though he was one of the best punters in college. I don’t see him beating out Hanson for the spot though.
• Nathan Hodel-A cheaper version of Lonnie Paxton.

Pats Roster Breakdown Part II

The much-awaited part two of the roster breakdown is here!

• Matt Light-His age and a quick pass-rusher worry me.
• Mark LeVoir-Good backup who did well in two starts last year at RT.
• Damane Duckett-Recently signed tackle played as a defensive lineman in his first few seasons in the NFL.
• Logan Mankins-I hope the Pats can resign him.
• Dan Connolly-The former Redhawk is a decent reserve.
• Dan Koppen-Great center.
• Russ Hochstein-Warren Sapp’s favorite player.
• Al Johnson-Should add some depth at center and guard.
• Ryan Wendell-Who?
• Stephen Neal-His age and mileage are troubling.
• Billy Yates-Did well starting at guard early on last season.
• Nick Kaczur-Okay RT.
• Ryan O’Callaghan-Sufficient backup.
• Wesley Britt- Provides depth and competition along the line.
• Ty Warren-Great DE who is locked up through 2013.
• Le Kevin Smith-Solid backup who keeps getting better and had a great game at Seattle last year.
• Vince Wilfork-A good NT is imperative in a 3-4 and Wilfork is one of the best in the game.
• Mike Wright-I’m glad the Pats resigned him as he can play both NT/DE and does well on special teams.
• Richard Seymour-A healthy Seymour in a contract year? Expect a great season.
• Jarvis Green-He will perform well this season and the Pats will resign him.
• Titus Adams-The former Cornhusker stayed on the practice squad for most of last season.
• Pierre Woods-If the season started today, he would start at OLB. Thankfully it doesn’t.
• Tully Banta-Cain-A decent backup who can rush the passer better than most anyone else the Pats currently have.
• Vince Redd-Faces a tough road to get on the 53-man roster, but the practice squad remains an option as he was only active for six games last year.
• Jerod Mayo-Should have another terrific season after an unbelievable rookie campaign. Since Vrabel is gone, will he now handle the on-field communication?
• Eric Alexander-Unless he plays great in camp, I think his time is up in Foxborough.
• Bo Rudd-Spent last season on IR and is a long shot to make the 53-man roster.

Pats Roster Breakdown Part I

As promised, here is part one of my Pats roster breakdown. Look for part two over the next few days.

• Tom Brady-He’s Tom Brady.
• Kevin O’Connell-I hope we don’t find out how good he is.
• Matt Gutierrez-Looked decent in preseason last year.
• Sammy Morris-Good, physical runner.
• Fred Taylor-Great signing. He excites me.
• Laurence Maroney-Anything from him will be a bonus.
• Kevin Faulk-Clutch performer who catches and blocks well-what more can you ask for?
• BenJarvus Green Ellis-Filled in well in the middle of the season, but still doesn’t have an easy path to making the roster.
• Randy Moss-Is 20 TDs too much to ask for?
• Wes Welker-Is 110+ catches too much to ask for?
• Joey Galloway-Could have a great season as the #3 receiver. Had three 1,000+ yard seasons in 2005-2007.
• Greg Lewis-Former Eagle will battle with Galloway for the #3 receiver spot.
• Sam Aiken-Good special teams player could see some offensive action if someone gets hurt.
• Matthew Slater-Will need to do well on ST to get a roster spot.
• Ben Watson-Contract year/most likely his last in New England.
• Chris Baker-Former Jet will be a good 2nd TE. Good blocker and decent in the passing game.
• David Thomas-Wasn’t he good at Texas?
• Tyson DeVree-Backup TE and STer will have to compete in camp for a spot.
• Brad Lisorti-He played at UMass.