Strengths and Weaknesses: AL East

Here is the post regarding each team's strengths and weaknesses in the AL East.

AL East:


Boston Red Sox:

Strengths: Pitching, pitching, and more pitching. The Red Sox organization has built up their starting pitching depth masterfully over the last few years. The Sox will go into 2009 with a rotation of Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Wakefield and Penny. John Smoltz is waiting in the wings, too. He will rehab until he is ready to contribute sometime in May or June. The Red Sox also have Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden in AAA, who are both good enough to pitch for ¾ of the major league teams right now. Secondly, but still very importantly, the Red Sox have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Even though the Red Sox pen was terrific last year, Theo and the front office went and acquired another arm: trading Coco Crisp for Ramon Ramirez. They also signed an immensely talented and successful Takashi Saito, who wasn’t receiving the offers he deserved after there were questions regarding his elbow. These two join a pen comprised of Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez, Hideki Okajima, Justin Masterson, and Jonathan “Cinco Ocho” Papelbon. Finally, do not forget the flame-thrower Daniel Bard who was consistently hitting triple digits during spring training. Although there is probably not a spot for him at the beginning of the year, if an injury strikes, he will be first in line to be called up.

Weaknesses: Most would argue that the Red Sox do not have a glaring weakness. The only problem that could strike them is the injury bug. With David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew coming back from injuries, the Red Sox lineup has some question marks. If those three contribute, though, the Red Sox have one of the deepest lineups in the game.

New York Yankees:

Strengths: As soon as Alex Rodriguez returns to the lineup, the Yankees have undoubtedly the best lineup in baseball with Damon, Jeter, A-Rod, Teixeira, Matsui, Posada, Cano, and whoever else they throw out there in the 8 and 9 spots. The Yankees also have one of the finest rotations in baseball after an offseason spending spree in which they signed C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Those two will join a rotation that includes Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain. The Yankees have good starting pitching depth as well, with Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy available should an injury strike.

Weaknesses: The Yankees do not have the bullpen depth that they had during the “Yankee Dynasty” years of the 1990’s. While Mariano Rivera remains as strong as ever, the rest of the bullpen does not have an established reliever other than Damaso Marte. While Yankee fans love to say that Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, and Phil Coke are going to shine, I’m not sold until I see them perform for another full season.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Strengths: The Rays are coming off a season in which they won the AL Pennant. The frightening thing for the rest of the AL East is that the heart of their lineup has room for improvement. Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria, and even Carlos Pena should all have improved numbers in 2009. The Rays starting pitching is also very good with James Shields, Scott Kazmir, and Matt Garza carrying the load. After the first two months of the season it is expected that the Rays will call up David Price, which should further improve their rotation. Andy Sonnastine is not a bad #5, either.

Weaknesses: The Rays biggest flaw is their bullpen. While Howell, Wheeler, and Balfour had strong seasons in 2008, they are going have to be just as strong in ’09 if they want to make the playoffs. Troy Percival also cannot be counted on for the long haul. If he goes down with an injury, I’m not sure the Rays have someone they can rely on to fill the closer’s role.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Strengths: The Blue Jays have quite a strong outfield core with Vernon Wells in center and Travis Snyder and Alexis Rios in left and right. Adam Lind is also a capable outfielder. The Jays have one of the league’s best starters in Roy Halladay, so they are not likely to go on any prolonged losing streaks.

Weaknesses: Unfortunately for the Jays, they have more weaknesses than strengths. Losing Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum to injury really leaves their rotation in shambles. Their bullpen is also pretty thin with only Scott Downs, Brandon League, and an aging B.J. Ryan to rely upon (Ryan’s velocity has been down considerably during spring training). Scott Rolen has shown over the last two seasons that he has very little left, and Vernon Wells has a lot to prove coming off an injury riddled 2008. With the Red Sox and Yankees paying the big bucks year in and year out, the fact that the Jays didn’t spend a dollar in free agency speaks volumes about where this team is headed.

Baltimore Orioles:

Strengths: The Orioles have a few really good, young, position players. The list includes Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters (who will begin the season in AAA). Brian Roberts is the consummate professional, and Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora are coming off 100 RBI seasons. The Orioles also have the luxury of having two relievers, George Sherrill and Chris Ray, with experience as closer.

Weaknesses: Should I just say Peter Angelos and move on? The Orioles front office has been fighting the owner for years. From a team standpoint, the Orioles enter 2009 with a questionable starting rotation. Jeremy Guthrie looks like a sure thing, but after him, the O’s have some serious question marks. The fact that their #2 starter is Koji Uehara, a guy who hasn’t thrown a pitch in the big leagues, can’t bode well for them.

World Series Prediction

WS-

New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox (BOS wins 4-2)


This series will not be a repeat performance of 1986.


(I can’t believe I just posted that)

While the Mets have Johan Santana, the Red Sox counter with the playoff pitcher extraordinaire, Josh Beckett (On a 1-10 scale, if Johan Santana is a 10, a healthy Josh Beckett is a 9.5 and a 11 in the playoffs). After that matchup, however, the Red Sox starters significantly outmatch anyone the Mets can throw out there: Lester vs. Pelfrey, Matsuzaka vs. Perez, and Smoltz vs. Maine. Although the Mets offense is slightly more potent than a healthy Red Sox lineup, pitching wins in the playoffs. Expect another World Series MVP from Josh Beckett.

*The Red Sox have home field advantage because I expect the American League to win this year’s Midsummer Classic.

ALCS and NLCS Predictions

ALCS-

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox (BOS wins 4-2)

We return to the ALCS of 2003 and 2004. The Red Sox can only hope for as sweet an outcome as 2004 (remember, the Red Sox came back from 3-0!) The pitching matchups should be Beckett vs. Sabathia, Lester vs. Burnett, Matsuzaka vs. Wang and Smoltz vs. Pettitte. Although it remains to be seen, the Red Sox postseason four-man rotation has to be considered one of the best of all time on paper. While the Yankees offense will power them to a couple of good nights, the Red Sox should win in six.

NLCS-

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets (NYM wins 4-3)

This series is going to go down as one of the best of all time. Ever since Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Beltran exchanged division championship predictions, these two teams have hated each other with a passion. The two finest offenses in the National League will square off in a series that is sure to see its fair share of long balls. Johan Santana and Cole Hamels should pitch well, but all of the other starters will hit the showers early. I see this series going seven games, with the Citi Field crowd giving the Mets a true home field advantage.

I will post my World Series winner tomorrow.

NLDS Playoff Predictions

NL-

NLDS-

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets (NYM wins 3-1)

The Mets will feed off the frenzy produced by the postseason in a new ballpark (Citi Field). With the best pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana, the Mets are sure to be guaranteed at least one game in every series they play. The Dodgers’ starters will struggle against a finely tuned Mets offense fueled by Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran. Expect strong postseasons from these three.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs (PHI wins 3-2)

This will be the closest of any of the division series. The Cubs will be motivated to break a 101 year curse, whereas the Phillies will be looking to repeat as World Series champions. Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez will slug it out against Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Expect the Phillies to need a strong game 5 performance from Cole Hamels to advance.

Look for my ALCS and NLCS picks tomorrow!

ALDS Playoff Predictions

AL-

ALDS-

Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox (BOS wins 3-0)

The Red Sox will take care of the Twins in convincing fashion. Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka will take on Baker, Liriano and Slowey in 3 favorable matchups for the Red Sox. As long as the Red Sox lineup is healthy, it should be firing on all cylinders by the time the postseason rolls around!

New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (NYY wins 3-1)

The Yankees offense will carry them by the Angels. If A-Rod does not have any setbacks from hip surgery during the season, a lineup of Damon, Jeter, A-Rod, Teixeira, Matsui, Posada, Cano, and more will be too much for the Angels pitchers to handle. With Ervin Santana and John Lackey having injury concerns during spring training, who knows if they will even hold up for the playoffs.

I will post my NLDS predictions later today or tomorrow.

2009 MLB Preview: National League

NL-

East:

y- New York Mets: 93-69
w- Philadelphia Phillies: 91-71
Florida Marlins: 85-77
Atlanta Braves: 81-81
Washington Nationals: 66-96

The Mets took care of their glaring weakness, the bullpen, and should be in position to win the East. The Phillies still have the core of their team together but have some injury concerns (i.e. Chase Utley coming off of hip surgery and Cole Hamels having some elbow issues during spring training). As long as those two are healthy, though, the Phillies will have a strong enough record to take the Wild Card. The Braves made some quality offseason additions to their starting rotation and should be back around .500 (Bobby Cox always gets the most out of his players.)

Central:

y- Chicago Cubs: 92-70
St. Louis Cardinals: 81-81
Milwaukee Brewers: 80-82
Houston Astros: 78-84
Cincinnati Reds: 76-86
Pittsburgh Pirates: 68-94

Although I don’t think they will win 97 games again, the Cubs are clearly still the best team in the Central. The Brewers will struggle to play .500 baseball after losing their two horses C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets, and the rest of the teams in the division are mediocre at best. The Reds, with Dominicans Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto, have two young studs but will always have their difficulties pitching at Great American Ball Park. The NL Central is the biggest lock in the majors.

West:

y- Los Angeles Dodgers: 89-73
Arizona Diamondbacks: 82-80
San Francisco Giants: 79-83
Colorado Rockies: 71-91
San Diego Padres: 68-94

The Dodgers will win the West for the second year in a row. Although Manny Ramirez killed the Red Sox team chemistry, he was on his best behavior in L.A. and nearly led them to a World Series. Re-signing Man-Ram was a necessity for the Dodgers, and two years for $45 million is a pretty fair deal. Keeping Rafael Furcal and signing Orlando Hudson were also good moves. The Diamondbacks are going to have a good team, mostly because of their starting pitching, but may not have enough offensive consistency. The same goes for the San Francisco Giants.

There you have it: my projections for the American League and National League.

AL East: Boston Red Sox (96-66)
AL Central: Minnesota Twins (85-77)
AL West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (89-73)
AL Wild Card: New York Yankees (92-70)

NL East: New York Mets (93-69)
NL Central: Chicago Cubs (92-70)
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers (89-73)
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies (91-71)

As a generality, while many of the game’s best teams are still holding their ground, the league’s worst teams have made improvements (there are two 95 loss club in my projections, compared to four last year).

I will begin posting my playoff predictions tomorrow.

2009 MLB Preview: American League

Here are my predictions for the 2009 MLB Season, starting with the American League.

I used Baseball Mogul 2010 as my simulation tool and adjusted the standings as I saw fit. It was a very painstaking process: when I added a win for one team, I had to find another team to add a loss to. I also took into consideration last year’s results, as well as the teams’ improvements over the offseason.

AL-

East:

y- Boston Red Sox: 96-66
w-New York Yankees: 92-70
Tampa Bay Rays: 91-71
Toronto Blue Jays: 76-86
Baltimore Orioles: 73-89

The AL East is still the best overall division in baseball. Unlike last year, the Rays will be the odd team out. Demoting an impact player like David Price, whether it is for salary purposes or for player development, could be a crucial mistake in such a highly contested division. The guy proved in the 2008 ALCS that he is ready for the show. Although the Yankees will miss A-Rod for the first six weeks of the season, Price’s demotion should help them make up a couple of crucial games.

Central:

y- Minnesota Twins: 85-77
Cleveland Indians: 83-79
Detroit Tigers: 79-83
Chicago White Sox: 78-84
Kansas City Royals: 77-85

Cleveland could easily win the division, too. I simply admire the teams that Bill Smith and the Minnesota Twins put together year in and year out and don’t see Cliff Lee repeating his 2008 performance. The Twins have a nice core rotation with Liriano, Baker and Slowey. As long as Mauer’s back isn’t a long term issue, the Twins should have enough to win the Central.

West:

y- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 89-73
Oakland Athletics: 79-83
Texas Rangers: 78-84
Seattle Mariners: 74-88

They should take a team out of the NL Central and stick it here (kidding!) The Angels are still the best team in the AL West. They were smart to replace Teixeira with a greatly discounted Bobby Abreu and, if healthy, have one of the best rotations in the game. While Oakland made some nice offseason moves, their rotation has too many question marks. Texas isn’t going to win anything until they move out of that bandbox of a ballpark!

Upcoming Posts...

Hey guys,

We're having some issues indenting on HTML, but we hope to get that sorted out soon enough!

Within the next couple of days I am going to write a couple of posts concerning the following topics:

1. 2009 MLB Baseball Preview

Will include projections for all 6 divisions- Division Champions, Wild Card winners, overall records. Included will be playoff predictions and a World Series pick. I will also look at the AL East more closely and talk about each team's strengths and weaknesses.

2. Red Sox 2009

A specific look at my favorite team: the Boston Red Sox. Including lineup breakdown, pitching staff analysis and statistical projections. 2009 outlook and beyond as well. Will comment on the minor leagues, too.

I hope to begin work on these articles within the next week. Thank you!