2009 MLB Preview: American League

Here are my predictions for the 2009 MLB Season, starting with the American League.

I used Baseball Mogul 2010 as my simulation tool and adjusted the standings as I saw fit. It was a very painstaking process: when I added a win for one team, I had to find another team to add a loss to. I also took into consideration last year’s results, as well as the teams’ improvements over the offseason.

AL-

East:

y- Boston Red Sox: 96-66
w-New York Yankees: 92-70
Tampa Bay Rays: 91-71
Toronto Blue Jays: 76-86
Baltimore Orioles: 73-89

The AL East is still the best overall division in baseball. Unlike last year, the Rays will be the odd team out. Demoting an impact player like David Price, whether it is for salary purposes or for player development, could be a crucial mistake in such a highly contested division. The guy proved in the 2008 ALCS that he is ready for the show. Although the Yankees will miss A-Rod for the first six weeks of the season, Price’s demotion should help them make up a couple of crucial games.

Central:

y- Minnesota Twins: 85-77
Cleveland Indians: 83-79
Detroit Tigers: 79-83
Chicago White Sox: 78-84
Kansas City Royals: 77-85

Cleveland could easily win the division, too. I simply admire the teams that Bill Smith and the Minnesota Twins put together year in and year out and don’t see Cliff Lee repeating his 2008 performance. The Twins have a nice core rotation with Liriano, Baker and Slowey. As long as Mauer’s back isn’t a long term issue, the Twins should have enough to win the Central.

West:

y- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 89-73
Oakland Athletics: 79-83
Texas Rangers: 78-84
Seattle Mariners: 74-88

They should take a team out of the NL Central and stick it here (kidding!) The Angels are still the best team in the AL West. They were smart to replace Teixeira with a greatly discounted Bobby Abreu and, if healthy, have one of the best rotations in the game. While Oakland made some nice offseason moves, their rotation has too many question marks. Texas isn’t going to win anything until they move out of that bandbox of a ballpark!